The State of the Nation



Notre Dame Nation, that is.  Sarah does a fine job humoring me and can actually hold her own, but I still don’t get many chances to talk Irish football in Guatemala, so I have a few things to get off my chest.  (Please comment away!  We'll see if I'm a true "blogger" yet, as articles about ND usually garner violent reactions one way or another) Now that the college football season has ended, it’s a good time to take inventory.  I like to end on a good note, so let’s take a look at the State of the Irish:  the ugly, the bad, and the good.


THE UGLY

 
Record Bowl Losing Streak
Yes, you've heard about it ad nauseum.  The Irish set the NCAA record for 9 straight bowl losses.  Granted, because of their worldwide appeal, ND is always paired with a higher ranked team, making them the underdog.  However, for college football's flagship team with the second best winning percentage of all-time, and #1 in national championships, Heismans, All-Americans, NFL players, Hall-of-Famers, etc., etc... this dubious record is certainly an ugly, embarrassing blemish to have.  Trust that the streak will end in a 2nd-tier bowl next season.

Two-year Talent Black Hole
When Willingham was fired, many fans and even the media felt he deserved more time.  “Yes, his record was bad, but give him more time to bring in his own players.”  The problem was, unbeknownst to the casual fans (and blind media members), Willingham was a flat-out lazy recruiter and “his players” showed little hope for the future.  With his first class, Ty benefited from Davie’s work and inked a top 10 class.  His second class was fine but then it got real ugly, real fast.  His next two classes signed (the second one being the mess Charlie had to try to clean up while winning a Super Bowl) will go down as the worst two recruiting classes in ND history.  (Not that they’ve been ranking classes since 1887, but it truly can’t get any worse.)  In fact, if you were to combine these two classes into one, it would still be UNRANKED.  So if you do the math, we are talking about this season’s sophomores and juniors.  Outside of 2 solid (not star) players in Walker and Crum and a couple marginal contributors (Grimes and Lambert)…  Nothin’.  Zero.  Nada.  A lack of depth is the reason the Irish did not live up to unrealistic championship expectations this year, and these 2 empty shelves in the cupboard will haunt ND Nation for at least one more season.  Charlie inked a top 5 class in ’06 and is on his way to doing the same in ’07.  Hopefully these blue-chippers will be able to quickly erase the ugly 2-year recruiting black hole left by Willingham.

 

THE BAD

 The Defense (or lack thereof)

No need to list the stats.  You've all seen it.  Over the last two seasons, this defense has had its moments, but when facing top teams... it isn't pretty.  Because of the talent gap mentioned above and Rick Minter's proven track record, I haven't given up on our defensive coordinator just yet.  However, he hasn't done much to impress during his second stint at the helm of the Irish D (he worked for Holtz in the early 90s), and I'm losing confidence fast.  We expected to be much improved this season, but the fact remains that we were starting a MLB out of position, a converted running back at OLB, and 3 converted receivers and a converted QB in the backfield.  For this reason, Minter may get another chance unless Weis thinks he can snag another top D-Coordinator.  Now, the defensive line was another story.  Few D-line units in ND history have had as much individual talent.  The Abiamiri/Laws/Landri combo should have been lethal, and what do these future NFL players (hopefully Landri's Sugar Bowl injury doesn't hurt his career) have to show for it?  I will be very surprised if defensive line coach Jappy Oliver keeps his job.  Charlie never had to worry about the defense in his NFL jobs, but it's ultimately his responsibility now, and he must find a way to take care of business (Note:  In typically aggressive fashion, Weis has now fired Minter and hired 36-year-old Corwin Brown from the NY Jets.)

 

THE GOOD

The Wizardry of Weis
With 3 blowout losses, some of the aura surrounding Charlie after last season has indeed been lost, as analyst Bob Davie so bitterly noted recently.  However, to go as far as saying "the program is not headed in a positive direction" is laughable.  No matter how those among the anti-Irish members of the media try to spin it, there is no denying that the big guy can coach. 

Let's look at one year at a time.  After 2 years with an offense that was beyond anemic under Willingham/Diedrick, Charlie absolutely lit things up with possibly the most prolific offense in Irish history.  This turnaround was done with virtually the same players.  Who else can be given the credit?  He turned an average but talented QB into a record breaking machine and possibly the number one overall pick in the draft.  Furthermore, he turned a no-name receiver into an All-American and ND's career leader in only 2 seasons.  And let's not forget about Stovall and Fasano, who also have Charlie to thank for their sudden rise into the NFL.  Even though all of his gains came on the offensive side of the ball (naturally), Charlie took a team with a 2-year losing record and brought them within a FG and a fingernail of playing for it all (reference the MSU loss and the infamous USC 4th and 9 play, respectively).  Because of this remarkable run, he deserved every bit of the "genius" talk that came his way.  


Maurice Stovall (left) has Charlie to thank for his NFL paycheck.

It was also easy to see why most were fooled (including me) into believing the Irish would be even better in '06.  Since freshmen rarely contribute to a major program, the core of the team is the sophomores through seniors.  The black hole moved up into the core this season.  This simply proved too much for even the wizard to overcome, and in reality he actually OVERachieved with this team.  While Michigan, USC, and LSU's talent advantage painfully showed, the Irish won 5 games against teams possessing equal or better overall talent (GT, PennSt, MSU, Purdue, UCLA).  Only against Stanford, N.Carolina, and the 3 military acadamies did the Irish truly have a decisive advantage.  So in hindsight, 10-3 was another admirable job by the little tuna.  Furthermore, starting 19-4 in his first two seasons with 2 BCS bids, Weis has out-performed the start of college football's poster boys:  Carroll, Stoops, Saban, and Tressel.  So the sky is not actually falling.  Weis really can coach.

One word:  Jimmy
By now everyone has heard of the "LeBron James of high school football."  Many critics point to the same hype surrounding Ron Powlus 12 years ago.  So even if he does flop, the fact that the best high school player in recent memory is coming to ND shows Weis can also bring in the horses.  Two straight top 5 classes proves he's on his way to stocking up and being able to meet ND Nation's expectations (which are no higher than his own). 

I can already hear some of you saying, "Now wait a minute Roc, for 8 years you blamed Davie and Willingham and said ND has plenty of talent.  Why does Charlie suddenly get a break?  Now they don't have talent?"  The answer is: look at the recruiting rankings.  These things are not perfect, but they are surprisingly accurate.  When you compare recruiting rankings to how they end up performing, the numbers do not, of course, line up perfectly.  However, there are remarkably few teams playing with top 10 (or top 20 for that matter) recruiting classes who finish unranked.... which, on average, is exactly what Davie and Willingham did.  Charlie, on the other hand, has finished in the top 10-15 with essentially unranked talent (two top 10 classes, but two almost worthless classes.)

For those of you doubting that Charlie has righted the ship, I challenge you to debate any of the following grades on my report card:

Davie Willingham Weis
Program Management C D B*
Game Management C- C- A-**
Xs & Os (within his area of expertise: O or D) A^ D^^ A
Graduation rate/Integrity B+   A A
Production (out of given talent level) D F A-
Recruiting B+ F A
Player Development C+ D A
"Gets it" (i.e. "Gets" ND) F C A+
*needs to solve the problems on defense
**downgraded for asinine 4th down calls
^would take him as a D-coordinator any day
^^what exactly was/is his area of expertise?

Still not convinced?  Where do I come up with this stuff?  Need to see some hard numbers?  Well, here you go, courtesy of Irish EyesThe raw data shows the success of a coaching transition.  The most telling statistic is the point differential. 

Davie
First two seasons: 16-9 record; +97 point differential
Prior two seasons: 17-6, +371
Change: -2 games, -274 points

Willingham
First two seasons: 15-10, +1
Prior two seasons: 14-9, +85
Change: 0 games, -84 points

Weis
First two: 19-6, +239 points
Prior two: 11-13, -72 points
Change: +7.5 games, +311 points

So.... (if you're still reading) yes, 10-3 felt more like 8-5 because of this season's high expectations.  But Charlie was also the reason for high expectations in the first place.  After Davingham, when 10-2 and a BCS berth is already "disappointing," I'd say we're in pretty good shape.  The reality of this year's team is that it was a lot like my surfer haircut.  It looked good on the outside, golden from a year of shining in the sun, but a look inside revealed the extremely thin reinforcements disguised underneath.  Thankfully, the big difference is that unlike me, the Irish are investing heavily on the best Rogaine on the market.  The weak patch will soon be a memory, as the thickest layer of troops in 10 years has entered the scene with Jimmy Clausen leading the charge.  Who ever doubted JC would lead Our Lady's team back to the promised land?

Go Irish! 

(P.S.  My research staff continues to investigate the rumors that LSU QB JeMarcus Russell's real father is Shaquille O'Neal.  Stay tuned.)

 
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Comments

  • 1/10/2007 6:46 AM scade wrote:
    "The streak will end in a 2nd tier bowl next year" What? I would think you would expect (demand) a national championship every year...

    Maybe you address the Stanford debacle and point to that era as to why ND will be a bit down next year... but why can't they win with the young guys?

    Plus, all the guys returning...

    Including the heart of ND football... Minnesota players such as Carlson and Laws!
    Reply to this
  • 1/11/2007 4:01 PM Glen O'Connor wrote:
    Darius Walker to the NFL? Good Luck dancing around an NFL line of scrimmage! glen
    Reply to this
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