ND Fans, please step away from the ledge
In September of 2003, my cousin Daren and I made the depressing walk of shame out of the Big House in Ann Arbor to my car after a humiliating ND defeat - 38-0, at the hands of the Michigan Wolverines. Four years later, as I made the drive home from a south Denver alumni gamewatch on Saturday, you'd think I would have felt those same levels of despair after another embarrassing loss by the same score. However, it's not even close to being that bad. Here's why...
Now, that's not to say I wasn't reaching for the Tylenol and didn't feel like I was going to throw-up on Saturday. BUT, there are huge differences in the state of the program between '03 and today. It has to do with your achievement level given the current talent you have, and the type of talent you are bringing in for the future. In '03, ND's talent did not equate to a blow-out from Michigan. In 2007, a blow-out was to be expected based on talent levels.
To add to the depression, Tyrone Willingham was not only underachieving with the talent he had, but he was providing absolutely no hope for the future. During that '03 season he was in the process of inking the worst recruiting class in Notre Dame history. He followed that up with an even worse class in '04! This combination of underachievement and abominable/lazy recruiting made his termination imperative. Period.
For those who follow the process known as the recruitment of 17-year-old high schoolers, this is all old news. Like me, you knew this season was coming; we just hoped it wouldn't be this bad. For the rest of you who have a life, let me fill you on the current state of affairs. There is only one man to blame for this season's mess, and he now wears purple.
Not fair you say? Making excuses after a rough 0-3 start? Read on and look at what kind of mess Tyrone left us. Again, we all knew this was coming; it's not hard to see! Does this mean Weis doesn't have improvements to make? Of course not. Has his reputation as an offensive genius taken a hit? Absolutely! But fans blasting him and ignorant journalists attempting to say that he was more successful with Ty's players than his own need to spend 3 minutes looking at the facts.
I'm not going to say "I told you so," but.... this is from my postseason blog in January of 2007:
"When Willingham was fired, many fans and even the media felt he deserved more time. "Yes, his record was bad, but give him more time to bring in his own players." The problem was, unbeknownst to the casual fans (and blind media members), Willingham was a flat-out lazy recruiter and "his players" showed little hope for the future. With his first class, Ty benefited fromDavie
A program might have a chance to survive one bad recruiting year, but not two. These two classes are now juniors and seniors. They were ranked in the top 40 to begin with and have been hit particularly hard by injuries and defections. ONLY SIX (6!) SENIORS REMAIN FROM AN ALREADY BAD '03 RECRUITING CLASS! Things would not be any worse had ND been hit with a major infraction and the NCAA cut our scholarships in half for 2 seasons.
Before the season, the media seemed to realize these facts and thus predicted an 0-4 to 0-8 start. (Although, now they are just having fun blaming Weis.) These predictions were based on our top 40 (or actually now top 75?) upperclassmen talent and a tough early schedule. In my preseason blog I wrote the following as one way to look at this season...
"We are switching to a brand-new defensive scheme with a new defensive coordinator who has never held the position, and inherits a 65th ranked defense with an undersized, 3-star average front 7. On offense, we must replace the 2 most productive receivers in ND history, the best QB in ND history, and a multi-year 1,000 yard rusher, and we put these newcomers behind an offensive line with 3 new starters. Overall, the juniors and seniors are the worst back-to-back classes in ND history (Thanks Ty!). We only have 6 seniors on scholarship! Add to that a murderous schedule, especially early, and whoa, close your eyes folks."
I also wrote, "We will be better than most experts predict." Where did I come up with this hopeful statement? I was banking on the fact that Weis would do what he did in his first two seasons, which was overachieve. Obviously, that hasn't been the case, as we've been even worse (statistically) than the media predicted.
Why?
We all underestimated the devastation caused by the pathetic upperclassmen, particularly at offensive line. It's easy to forget that it's almost unheard of for an offensive linemen to play in his second year of college, let alone his first. For a variety of reasons, development at this position takes much longer than others. You need to recruit 4 offensive linemen per season. Some won't pan out. While Tyrone was playing more golf than working the phone lines to our nation's best HS players, he did not sign a single O-lineman in '03. Needing to overcompensate in '04 with a banner haul, he promptly signed only 2. So instead of 8 in those two classes, he got 2! That's a death wish folks.
After redshirting 95% of freshman O-linemen around the country, the average offensive line has 10-13 sophomores, juniors, and seniors to pick from while assembling a 5-man unit. The 2007 Irish have only three (3!) to pick from - one senior and 2 sophomores (i.e., one "5th yr" and 2 juniors using ND's terminology, since they don't redshirt)! After plugging in these 3 whether they are good or not, that leaves the other two spots for underclassmen.
The results of this disaster... well, you've seen it for three weeks. It's no surprise ND leads the nation in sacks allowed! Charlie, with his proven track record, doesn't deserve to be judged with this ridiculous mess against three top teams. The only thing we can hope for is some improvement as the season continues. It doesn't change the fact that help is on the way. Charlie's true freshmen and sophomores are top 5-10 talent, and Weis is currently working on the number 1 class in the nation.
Believe me, I'm not saying watching these games isn't pure torture. The media (and our ND-hating friends) will take plenty of shots, but the reality remains that Charlie Weis is well on his way to rebuilding what Davingham destroyed. He will win at least one Championship before he's done. While on the surface it seemed like we fixed our problem in 2005, we actually have to be patient until Ty's handiwork filters through the program. Unfortunately, his inept reign will haunt us deeply this season and probably for one more. I don't compare Ty W. to George W. for nothing.
Now, that's not to say I wasn't reaching for the Tylenol and didn't feel like I was going to throw-up on Saturday. BUT, there are huge differences in the state of the program between '03 and today. It has to do with your achievement level given the current talent you have, and the type of talent you are bringing in for the future. In '03, ND's talent did not equate to a blow-out from Michigan. In 2007, a blow-out was to be expected based on talent levels.
To add to the depression, Tyrone Willingham was not only underachieving with the talent he had, but he was providing absolutely no hope for the future. During that '03 season he was in the process of inking the worst recruiting class in Notre Dame history. He followed that up with an even worse class in '04! This combination of underachievement and abominable/lazy recruiting made his termination imperative. Period.
For those who follow the process known as the recruitment of 17-year-old high schoolers, this is all old news. Like me, you knew this season was coming; we just hoped it wouldn't be this bad. For the rest of you who have a life, let me fill you on the current state of affairs. There is only one man to blame for this season's mess, and he now wears purple.
Not fair you say? Making excuses after a rough 0-3 start? Read on and look at what kind of mess Tyrone left us. Again, we all knew this was coming; it's not hard to see! Does this mean Weis doesn't have improvements to make? Of course not. Has his reputation as an offensive genius taken a hit? Absolutely! But fans blasting him and ignorant journalists attempting to say that he was more successful with Ty's players than his own need to spend 3 minutes looking at the facts.
I'm not going to say "I told you so," but.... this is from my postseason blog in January of 2007:
"When Willingham was fired, many fans and even the media felt he deserved more time. "Yes, his record was bad, but give him more time to bring in his own players." The problem was, unbeknownst to the casual fans (and blind media members), Willingham was a flat-out lazy recruiter and "his players" showed little hope for the future. With his first class, Ty benefited from
A program might have a chance to survive one bad recruiting year, but not two. These two classes are now juniors and seniors. They were ranked in the top 40 to begin with and have been hit particularly hard by injuries and defections. ONLY SIX (6!) SENIORS REMAIN FROM AN ALREADY BAD '03 RECRUITING CLASS! Things would not be any worse had ND been hit with a major infraction and the NCAA cut our scholarships in half for 2 seasons.
Before the season, the media seemed to realize these facts and thus predicted an 0-4 to 0-8 start. (Although, now they are just having fun blaming Weis.) These predictions were based on our top 40 (or actually now top 75?) upperclassmen talent and a tough early schedule. In my preseason blog I wrote the following as one way to look at this season...
"We are switching to a brand-new defensive scheme with a new defensive coordinator who has never held the position, and inherits a 65th ranked defense with an undersized, 3-star average front 7. On offense, we must replace the 2 most productive receivers in ND history, the best QB in ND history, and a multi-year 1,000 yard rusher, and we put these newcomers behind an offensive line with 3 new starters. Overall, the juniors and seniors are the worst back-to-back classes in ND history (Thanks Ty!). We only have 6 seniors on scholarship! Add to that a murderous schedule, especially early, and whoa, close your eyes folks."
I also wrote, "We will be better than most experts predict." Where did I come up with this hopeful statement? I was banking on the fact that Weis would do what he did in his first two seasons, which was overachieve. Obviously, that hasn't been the case, as we've been even worse (statistically) than the media predicted.
Why?
We all underestimated the devastation caused by the pathetic upperclassmen, particularly at offensive line. It's easy to forget that it's almost unheard of for an offensive linemen to play in his second year of college, let alone his first. For a variety of reasons, development at this position takes much longer than others. You need to recruit 4 offensive linemen per season. Some won't pan out. While Tyrone was playing more golf than working the phone lines to our nation's best HS players, he did not sign a single O-lineman in '03. Needing to overcompensate in '04 with a banner haul, he promptly signed only 2. So instead of 8 in those two classes, he got 2! That's a death wish folks.
After redshirting 95% of freshman O-linemen around the country, the average offensive line has 10-13 sophomores, juniors, and seniors to pick from while assembling a 5-man unit. The 2007 Irish have only three (3!) to pick from - one senior and 2 sophomores (i.e., one "5th yr" and 2 juniors using ND's terminology, since they don't redshirt)! After plugging in these 3 whether they are good or not, that leaves the other two spots for underclassmen.
The results of this disaster... well, you've seen it for three weeks. It's no surprise ND leads the nation in sacks allowed! Charlie, with his proven track record, doesn't deserve to be judged with this ridiculous mess against three top teams. The only thing we can hope for is some improvement as the season continues. It doesn't change the fact that help is on the way. Charlie's true freshmen and sophomores are top 5-10 talent, and Weis is currently working on the number 1 class in the nation.
Believe me, I'm not saying watching these games isn't pure torture. The media (and our ND-hating friends) will take plenty of shots, but the reality remains that Charlie Weis is well on his way to rebuilding what Davingham destroyed. He will win at least one Championship before he's done. While on the surface it seemed like we fixed our problem in 2005, we actually have to be patient until Ty's handiwork filters through the program. Unfortunately, his inept reign will haunt us deeply this season and probably for one more. I don't compare Ty W. to George W. for nothing.
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