Several times during this off-season, I sat down at my computer to write my "State of the (ND) Nation" report.  I just couldn't do it.  I couldn't bring myself to analyze the pain of the worst season in Irish football history.  My friend Stephen explained why he didn't ask me about the season by saying "It's kind of like when you don't know what to say to a loved one of the deceased at a funeral, so you don't say anything at all."  I appreciate the analogy...

But it's almost a new day.  It's time to step up.  In less than 16 hours, the nightmare that was the 2007 season will be over.  The dawn will bring another cutting-of-the-tag ceremony with the official 2008 ND Football Shirt.  The shirt's Grantland Rice "outlined against a blue-gray October sky" reference is great, but I think this other shirt truly reflects the feelings of the Irish faithful.
 
So what happened?

It's ok.  I can talk about it now.  First of all, I found it hilarious (not really) how quickly the media turned on Charlie last year.  Many "experts" predicted an 0-8 start, and then when it nearly happened they acted shocked.  So what did they base this prediction on in the first place?  Surely it wasn't on Charlie's poor coaching record, because all evidence up to that time clearly pointed to his well-earned guru status.  No, they obviously noticed the pathetic roster - specifically, the utterly non-existent junior and senior classes - and brutal early schedule.  Most of them conveniently forgot about the reason for their doomsday predictions once they came true. 

I don't mean to beat a dead horse, but the impact of the 2-year recruiting black hole cannot be overstated.  I wrote and warned about this here and here.  With the "black hole" being juniors and seniors in '07, it should have been our worst team ever!  Knute Rockne would not have won more than 5 games with that team! 

Last season, people accused me of being blindly loyal to Coach Weis, but since when has my blind loyalty to Notre Dame carried over to its football coach?  Once it became obvious that the two previous regimes were not going to get the job done, I certainly wasn't fighting for their job.  The only way to judge a coach's on-field job performance during the first four years is by what he achieves given his inherited talent and how well he recruits for the future.  So let's take a look at Charlie Weis:

Year 1 (black hole=frosh/soph)
Overachieving Wins (i.e., wins against superior talent):  3 (Pitt, Michigan, Tenn)
Underachieving Losses (i.e., losses against inferior talent):  0
Recruiting Class:  Top 10
(Note:  bottom line here was he took the same players from a 6-6 team within a "FG and a fingernail" of playing for a title.)

Year 2 (black hole=soph/jr)
Overachieving Wins: 2 (Penn St, UCLA)
Underachieving Losses:  0
Recruiting Class:  Top 5

Year 3 (black hole=jr/sr)
Overachieving Wins:  1 (UCLA)
Underachieving Losses:  2 (Navy, Air Force)
Recruiting Class:  #1 (that's right, a few of 'Bama's recruits did not enroll, so they recalculated ND from #2 to #1)

When you look beyond pure wins/losses, Weis overachieved statistically even more in Year 1, while the "underachieve" label was intensified by Year 3's abysmal stats (Year 2 was a wash).

So what do we know?

1.  Weis can recruit like no other.  Inking the nation's top class while coming off a 3-9 season... incredible.
2.  He can coach experienced players to a level that was previously not thought possible.  In other words, he has proven he can bring players from point B to point C.
3.  He has not proven he can take young, raw talent from point A to point B.

Weis admitted that he got too cute last year, thinking he could out scheme other teams with an incredibly young group.  His NFL approach of not hitting in practice and failing to develop fundamental team strengths was obviously not a good fit.  The question is, did he learn his lesson?

It appears so.  I still trust him.  You are not as successful as he has been at a variety of coaching positions without being able to learn from mistakes.  But I guess we will find out tomorrow and especially next week against Michigan.  The bad news is that the "black hole" still lingers.  Last season, seven seniors were left from the original 17 in the class.  Only 3 of those hung around for a 5th year and 2 will start this year (Crum and Lambert). 

Unfortunately, the class behind them isn't much better.  Only 5 seniors will start this year (Grimes & Turkovich on Offense, and Bruton, Kuntz, & McCarthy on D).  By contrast, 8 freshmen and sophomores will start, and it will probably be more by season end.  Look out for freshmen phenoms Kyle Rudolph (TE) and Michael Floyd (WR).  In fact, only 2 teams in the country have more freshmen in their 2-deep depth chart than Notre Dame.   (Note:  Our deep defensive backfield helps sooth the loss of lock-down corner Darin Walls for the season, but it still hurts to lose arguably our best player.)

What about Jimmy?

It's safe to say that the LeBron James of HS football did not live up to expectations in '07.  But I wouldn't give up on him quite yet.  The media ate him up last year, but here's what he did:  with an all true-freshmen backfield, a true-freshmen receiving tandem, the worst offensive line in history... he still completed 56% of his passes... while nursing several injuries!

The fact is, the kid can flat-out sling it.  And I might add - he was better than Brady Quinn as a freshman. 

Where my worry about Clausen comes from is this:  by all accounts he is a first-rate knucklehead.  His teammates don't like him and he has a lot of growing up to do.  But for you Evan Sharpley fans, I think I'll take my chances with Jimmy learning how to be a leader over Sharpley learning how to throw.

The Bottom Line?

With a 3-9 season, more than a few worrisome signs surfaced.  But hope for the resurrection of a program that annually factors into the national championship picture is certainly still alive.  With a positive transition season (7+ wins) in '08 and another typical Weis recruiting class, the Irish will finally have a full roster and be set for quite a run in '09 and beyond. 

Feeling uninspired?  Wondering where all this matter-of-fact, ho-hum analysis is coming from on the Eve of my favorite holiday known as GAMEDAY?  Not the kind of pre-season report you were looking for from me?  Well, I'll admit it.  I was shaken.  But the first step is being able to talk about the pain.  And don't forget, as I write this the 2007 season is not over yet. 

Want a sneak preview of tomorrow morning?  Wake up to ND fight song.  "The Shirt" ceremony.  Watch Rudy.  Bible Reflection:  Be not afraid; The last shall be first; etc... Watch the Here Come the Irish video.  Crank up the Gameday Mix on my iPod.  Pace the hallway with football in hand.  Conduct pre-game conference call with dad and sister.  Stretch.  Push-ups...

Ok, ok, I can't stand it!  I'm ready.  Forget what I said above.  13-0.  National Championship.  Bring it.

LET'S GO IRISH!!!